Swing voters - Read this to think deeper

Please pass this on to those who are independent or undecided voters in the swing states and to people who will pass it on to people in the swing states. 

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Barack Obama, who I had voted for in the dearth of alternatives and in the hope for change, is a good, committed fellow but he has the misunderstandings typical to an idealist and a person with no grounding in the real world of economics and what actually works and doesn’t work (which is what one learns from actual experience where decisions and strategies must work in actual results).

Yes, we do need to make sure we take care of those who cannot take care of themselves. Yes, we do need to do those functions that can only be done from a centralized system to benefit all Americans. And that includes especially assuring that Americans are educated and productive, able to cover themselves and contribute to the overall good.

But there is an argument of how much further should we go along the continuum of practicality versus idealism.

The ultimate “further” is the ever appealing Socialism. (We are not there, but the question is how far to go.)

“We can do it together. We can provide for all. We can assure equality and that the rich and powerful do not take over.”

The argument in Socialism is fired up by choosing an enemy, or bad guy. The same goes for Saul Alinsky’s Rules For Radicals (which Obama taught in Chicago).

The argument is further fired up by the appealing concept of the government providing for all.

The danger lies here in “entitlement” or classic codependency where people are enabled to depend on rescue and security from another – and this results in less ambition and less self-esteem for the individual but it results in many fewer people contributing to the productivity and welfare of the nation.

The indicator of this that is concrete is the number of people depending on the government (exclusive of those who have paid into a system). (About 50% pay no federal income taxes. Is that reasonable?)

That indicator can creep up without our noticing it.

How much is too much?

Of course, we can’t get all capable people who are unproductive to be productive, but we should be able to limit those who aren’t to, say, 10% (this is in addition to those who are in fact not capable). Surely it would make sense for us to demand that they do whatever they can to carry their own load - and not reward them with any money beyond the slightest subsistence that is demanded by the humanitarianism of not letting anyone starve. But those people must be called on to be responsible – and to contribute– which will help us have more money for the good causes.

Ultimately, Socialism calls for “From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.” (Wikipedia)

And “we will take care of you” is the ultimate way to get people “fired up” – many people get excited by it.

But it falls short in that it fails to meet the final tests:

1. There is no clear path on how this is to be actually provided. We must not be misled into believing that the rich can provide it (from each according to his ability), because, though appealing, there is not enough wealth for the rich to be able to do that. If you increased taxes on them by 10%, exclusive of the economic effect on growth, only 1/5 of the current deficit would be paid for. Anyone using the argument that the rich can cover you is possibly doing the pied piper approach – for there is no substance to the argument, there is no way to make it work.

All the hope in the world will not make it work, for there is no proven way to make it work.

And note that Socialism has always failed.

And before it ultimately fails, the leaders have to start imposing their own authoritarianism to force people to comply, always.

The beginning is always with the idea of “doing the right thing” by providing for the people. They use their form of “executive orders” (leader orders) to implement “the right thing”, which, incidentally, does look like the right thing and it may be the right thing, but the consequences are not identified clearly(or we would seek a different balance, given that there are tradeoffs – and we must realize that the good fairy will not show up to make it all work).

The leaders fail to stick to the laws and go around them without working it out with the legislature, which is the entity to make the laws – after all, the leaders’ judgment is “superior”to theirs.

Yes, it appears innocuous at first.

Who cares if the budgets submitted to Congress are voted down 100% - by both parties!

Who cares that the immigration laws (which the leaders have determined are not right) are not enforced – and surely it is wonderful to not deport those who have never known another nation. I agree with the latter idea, but shouldn’t the lawmakers agree and be the ones who formulate the laws?

Who cares that the leaders impose regulations and restrictions that support their constituencies even though they are doing it by essentially creating their own laws or not waiting for them to be created by lawful means? No big deal, right?

No big deal, just lots of little changes – which gradually accumulate and catch you before you realize it.

And isn’t it wonderful that we impose these requirements on the evil profitmaking health insurance companies, where they are to provide “for free” certain benefits to all (yes, there appears to be a “good fairy” here). Free is good, and it is appealing, but do we have the right to dictate (as in orders from a dictator)? And without agreement in law?

Where are the limits? And aren’t there signs of going around the law and the rules? How far should we allow that to go? It seems harmless, but we should be aware of it.

2. We are limited by what is real and practical and we should address that,, yes?

And if there are financial concerns shouldn’t we address those with a concrete plan? Or should we just ignore it and rely on hope –hope that it will solve itself in the long run – which of course does not work in the real world!

If we have promises of more and more and more, but we fail to set up a means of fulfilling current promises (currently behind by $100 trillion, per the Trustees reports!), aren’t we in for problems in the future?

But, no, it is easy to ignore that and easier to fire up the people with more promises, briefly alluding to “I’ll take care of that and yes it is serious but we’ll handle it” and “don’t vote for those who are mean and force us to face tradeoffs” (said more convincingly than that, of course).

I don’t like the idea that the “other” party has alternate values to my own, though I cannot prove mine are right, as they are only opinions. I respect theirs. But as I look at it, 72% of the people in the US approve of 1^st trimester abortions, so there will be no difference there regardless of who I vote for. And I know that it is not true that the other party will let people starve in the streets, nor do I think that they could impose that even if they wanted to, as the people would have a say-so in that and no one would let it happen. And gay rights will continue to improve.

I see no loss of basicsocial benefits, but I do see a greater ability to be effective plus a willingness to address the tough issues – not just the national debt but the $100 trillion of unfunded liabilities in Social Security and Medicare (still unaddressed by Obama after 3 ½ years; politically wise, but a sell-out on the American people).

One path, in my analysis, has no hope of succeeding, with a leader who has no practical capability and experience, though noble intent. The other will do no damage, because they can’t go beyond the will of the people, but it will at least seek to do what is right and workable and practical – with at least good solid potential.

There seems to be no contest here.

One path is virtually guaranteed not to work – there is no good fairy that will rescue us.

The other path is systematic, disciplined, with a capable proven leader and ‘rescuer’ of businesses, Olympics, and a state. (And in his famous op-ed that was titled by the New York Times and was misleading, he actually proposed to save Detroit by a managed bankruptcy to make each company safely viable and then, and only then, to have government guarantee the necessary loans, so that necessary capital could be obtained. Read the op-ed; don’t rely on the false representations made about this. Detroit.)

And if the people fail to realize that we must follow a path that works, in this world of imperfection and real limits, instead of one that literally has no hope except for the good fairy showing up and rescuing it all – if they fail to realize it, we will suffer greatly as a nation – and drop even further behind in being able to finance all that is good and beneficial in the world.

Income Disparity - The Real Reason

Even our President appears to blame the rich for incomes of the non-rich not rising.  I wonder if he is just not being advised of the natural economics that caused this? 

In a free market, competition and demand will determine the prices (including the price for services).

When we had a distinct advantage where we (the West) had the industrialization advantage and knew how to market and distribute goods, we prospered - because we were more productive.  We had great advantage for many years. 

But eventually other countries began to integrate the technology that had been developed, to become more organized for business and they began to compete.  Of course, their wages were relatively low.  Therefore, the business went to them - they were simply more competitive in price.  

Gradually over the last 30 years, the value of what the West could offer was less and less, as we could no longer compete.  So there was a downward influence on wages.  Actually, the wages driven down were at the lower end, where other countries could compete.  High skill manufacturing jobs dropped 17%, while low skill manufacturing jobs declined 34%.    But these other countries, so far, have not competed as much in the higher-value knowledge areas - those wages have risen, creating an even wider income disparity.

Meanwhile, quite naturally and understandably, the wealth of the rich compounded basically because they were risking and investing - and professionals and knowledge workers had their compensation increase, while all the other wages did not. 

While this is strictly economics, people have blamed the rich for it.  But clearly this is "wrong cause", where the cause is neither logically or correctly identified.

See Discussion On Income Disparities.

The solution does not lie in taking wealth away from others, but in empowering as many as possible so that there are more people contributing and are in the higher value areas - and increasing the size of the pie, rather than just splitting it differently.   And the only way to do that is to educate people in the higher skill areas and direct those resources to higher value areas, as we will not be competitive with the lower skill items that other countries can do more economically. 

Hopefully we can use rational thinking and analysis to direct our efforts - and stop the irrational and political nonsense.  What do you think?

The Rational NonPolitician

Political Expediency - Delay of pipeline til 2013?

Is this President putting an election above the country? 


1.  The route was approved after extensive studies.

2.  The jobs produced would start at 20,000 and go to 500,000, for the Americans.

3.  It allows us to become less dependent on oil from hostile source.

4.  The stand of environmentalists objecting, President Obama put the decision on whether to approve the pipeline to 2013 - after the election. 

5.  Speeding up approval/permit processes is what any country must do if it is to achieve prosperity - and this is another negative indicator on Obama.

If he is indeed doing this for political purposes this does border on being treasonous.

Follow this story and see what is more likely to be the case.  More data below.

The Rational NonPolitician


HUGELY BENEFICIAL

During high unemployment in the USA in a world-wide recession, the Keystone XL pipeline would start with some 20,000 jobs with another 400,000 to come on steam later down the road.

Canada, who supplies more oil to the US than any other country, also its largest trading partner is proof positive that America does not have to rely on the Middle East for its oil.

READY FOR APPROVAL

For months, the conventional wisdom had been that a presidential permit for Keystone XL was inevitable; Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in October 2010 that she was “inclined” to approve it because it was better to get oil from Canada than from less-friendly nations. The State Department then said in August stating that TransCanada’s proposed route is the preferred option.

The department had already examined routes further west and northeast of Nebraska that would have avoided the Sand Hills area and had released a final supplemental environmental review in August that said TransCanada’s proposed route was the preferred option and would have minimal effect on the environment.

“This project is too important to the U.S. economy, the Canadian economy and the national interest of the United States for it not to proceed,” Girling said a statement.



POLITICAL $ FOR OBAMA

Sierra Club Executive Director Michael Brune had recently told reporters Obama’s decision on Keystone would “have a very big impact” on whether the nation’s largest environmental group funnels resources more toward congressional races rather than the race for the White House.

THIS COULD KILL THE WHOLE DEAL

The delay would "effectively kill" the project, said Sierra Club Executive Director Michael Brune. "The carrying costs are too high, and there's no certainty that at the end of 18 months the pipeline would be approved at all."

Russ Girling, chief executive officer of Calgary-based TransCanada, who had said rerouting delays might kill the project, said yesterday the company remains “confident Keystone XL will ultimately be approved.”

Canada’s ambassador in Washington, Gary Doer,   told reporters in Ottawa that he expected the project to be approved if judged on “merit,” rather than ”noise.”

The deferral on Keystone XL is a blow to the government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who called U.S. approval of the pipeline a “no brainer.” Canadian officials underestimated the strength of resistance to the project by Nebraska farmers and environmentalists, political and foreign-policy experts said.

Canadian Finance Minister, Flaherty, 61, will travel later this week to Beijing, where he will discuss increasing energy exports to China and facilitating investment in Canadian natural-resource assets.

“The decision to delay it that long is actually quite a crucial decision. I’m not sure this project would survive that kind of delay,” Flaherty said yesterday in an interview at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Honolulu. “It may mean that we may have to move quickly to ensure that we can export our oil to Asia through British Columbia.”

The delay would "effectively kill" the project, said Sierra Club Executive Director Michael Brune. "The carrying costs are too high, and there's no certainty that at the end of 18 months the pipeline would be approved at all." TransCanada wants to build the 1,700-mile pipeline to carry oil extracted from Canadian oil sands to U.S. refineries.

Japan and China 'keen' for Alberta oil

"Basically all of our energy exports are currently going to the United States. We have one customer. So it is a major fundamental strategic objective of Canada to diversify our customer base," Oliver said.

"I was in China and Japan and I just got back yesterday. And let me tell you there’s a keen interest in our resources in both those countries. The Japanese are interested in our natural gas, the Chinese in our oil and gas."

 

 

Mr. Mitt Romney, I See Your "Why"

I have studied the candidates and then looked more deeply into them.

And, I think, people do not get the powerful "why" for Mitt Romney. 

WHY does he want to be President?

In a simple statement it is, I think, "to use the abilities I have acquired so that I can direct this nation back to prosperity and strength for all Americans."   And a subtext is, I believe, "my heart is broken when I see the suffering and struggles that now exist in this country...and I want to do as much about it as I can."

For some reason, his "why" doesn't show up clearly.  He needs to (as we all do) consider the message in this TED talk (18 minutes) of Simon Sinek "How great leaders inspire action". 

I am hoping that Mr. Romney will get the "why" to be known, so that he can be the one to lead this nation.

We have learned, I think, that great rhetoric and wonderful motives are insufficient for the most important job in the world - and that it cannot be left to someone who does not have the capabilities, no matter how nice and good the person is.

You, Mr. Romney, are the only one who is immensely qualified to recreate a strong foundation and prosperity for America. 

So, please do what it takes to win the primary, and then go on to be President.  We cannot afford not to have you as President. And you need to make your "why" clear to all of us, so we can match it with your great abilities and elect you to restore the strength of this nation.

This is my rational opinion.  If you have a contribution to make in this regard, please do so.

Yours for rational decisions and prosperity,

The Rational NonPolitician

P. S. After my investigation, I have written several pieces.  You can find them via the Evaluation Of Romney page.

Rationally Evaluating Romney - Extraordinary

I decided to look deeper and to determine who would be the best for the United States.  I was very impressed about how extraordinarily capable and caring he is. 

If one puts aside biases for a moment and conflicts of beliefs, one will find that all citizens, on the left or the right, will be better off if Mitt Romney becomes the President. 

I would predict that he will be the best President ever, in terms of effectiveness in improving our economy and the benefits we derive from it.

From The Site, Evaluation Of Romney:

Among all the candidates for President for 2012, there is no competitor (with the exception of Huntsman) who even comes close as to the qualifications and ability to manage the United States government for the betterment of all, regardless of one's party affiliation.

If one reviews his background, in areas that are controllable, he has had extraordinary results, including these:

1. Taking all of the employees of the firm to locate a partner's missing young daughter (see video Mitt Romney Hero),
2.  Turning a $3 billion dollar deficit for Massachusetts into a $1 billion dollar surplus (see video on his governorship An Introduction).
3.  Rescuing the 2002 Olympics from disaster and fraud and making it highly successful and profitable (see documentary video Olympics Turnaround).
4.  Turned around a major management consultant firm and consulted with many businesses to improve their operations.
5.  Ran a business investment firm, buying and/or financing and then consulting or managing, with an extraordinary set of results, averaging an astounding return on investment of 113 per cent.  See documentary video The Businessman. 

He is fair and highly conscientious about protecting those who are in need (proven by his actual actions) and he is avid about creating opportunity and educating people so that they will prosper.

He has prepared a thorough plan (while Obama has never produced a thorough written plan) for jobs and economic factors:  See The Plan or The PDF Summary (at Mitt Romney, Jobs). 

Extraordinarily effective and caring to do what is right - this is a potent combination that could benefit this nation more than ever before.   With him in charge, I am certain that our culture and our country will prosper. 

Look at the evaluation and decide.   This is an important time.  (You might want to review the Evaluation Of Obama's Presidency, 10/11.)

The Rational Problem Solver

As always, I welcome corrections, additions, analyses and any comments.

Barack Obama's Distinct Prejudices

Barack Obama is very intelligent and capable, but his distinct prejudices (and the lack of knowledge that permits this to continue to exist) dramatically hurt his ability to make decisions that benefit the economy and certain aspects of society.

These prejudices are understandable in light of his experience as a community organizer - and that his frame of mind continues in that vein. This is a good, positive trait, in that it connotes empathy and caring and values toward the good of mankind.

However, that viewpoint is not continued out into a broader view of the world. 

If this is possibly political rhetoric, designed to appeal to the base, it reeks of inauthenticity compared to his stated goals of benefitting the nation.  If it is authentic prejudice, then it is equally damaging and out of place - and he needs an education.  Basically, he suffers from lack of awareness, which is an inevitable result of his limited experience. 

He speaks of:

"fat cats"
"punish our enemies" (when referring to fellow Americans)
"being held hostage" (as if he was a victim - which is not good for a President to be)

And a myriad of such demonizing or make wrong statements. 

He denigrates the "profit motive" and forgets that it is the engine that drives the economy, which then permits us to have enough money to take care of all of our citizens.  He imposes massive sets of regulations, which are an obvious damper to business. 

I can imagine, given all of his many good traits, the power he would have without those prejudices, where he could seek unbiased, unslanted advice and hear it better. 

But the prejudices and positions have been so strong that there is very little progress in enabling private enterprise to do its part, which would be if in a pro-growth stance toward them to drive us to prosperity instead of a web of entanglement that is disabling.  (He should take, as well as the members of congress, a basic course in capitalism, such as that mentioned on the site:  Capitalism.)

If he were to let go of the demonization and see that few businesses are headed by devils and that overall the business people are good people who want to create good, but are people who have a specific focus as to how they contribute, then he would have the possibility of being an effective President. 

I would hope for change, so that he can implement "hope and change".   I did vote for him, with the purpose of shaking things up, to run our country from more of an enlightened viewpoint - plus the judgment I made about McCain not being a very good source of hope plus his having a vice president that is too weak to be a President. 

But, alas, there is no case for his being an effective President, unless he chooses to authentically run this country for the benefit of all and to let go of the politically driven rhetoric and motives.

Will he change?  I would hope so.  I would hope for a miracle...but with very little belief that it will happen.

Sad.  Too bad...

The Rational Non-Politician

WE ARE DECLINING IN WHAT MADE US PROSPEROUS

It is no mystery why our society and prosperity is declining.  It's the loss of values and character.

The signs are clear.  We have stopped doing what works. 

An especially good overview is contained in The 6 Killer Apps Of Prosperity, a talk at TED.

Our work ethic is 1000 hours per year less than Korea.  Our math capabilities are dramatically lower than other countries. 

Yes, we need to fix certain things so that incentives are creating an ongoing opportunity for business.  Yes, we cannot continue to seek to suppress business in favor of the people in the mistaken idea that one is bad for the other - which might be a concept that Obama is holding onto, though he appears to be learning it is otherwise, but not quite there.  This suppression is like cutting off our noses to spite our faces or like killing the goose that lays the golden egg. 

But we will not truly prosper until more of us are engaged and being productive. 

It is not about education for skills only, as many will not learn if they are not so "inclined."  Accordingly, it is only logical that we must first teach values and character.  Ironically, we fail to see this.  Even the excellent Gates Foundation emphasizes skills over character education.  I would propose that they change the percentage allocated to teaching values, character, and reasoning to the mix, so that people can know how to run their lives.

What do you think? 

The Rational Non-Politician